Multi-agent modeling of the energy transition in Europe

The project involves developing a data-driven agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the energy transition in Europe, accounting for both macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts. The model will account for spatial variation and socioeconomic aspects such as regional inequalities, changes in the labor market, and consumption patterns. By explicitly modeling heterogeneous agents—households, businesses, and policymakers—ABM will enable the analysis of adaptive behavior, feedback mechanisms, and dynamic path effects that are not captured by traditional equilibrium-based models.

The model will be implemented in two phases. First, retrospective simulations will map past and ongoing stages of the European energy transition, identifying key behavioral, institutional, and technological factors and validating the model against historical data. Next, forward-looking simulations will explore counterfactual scenarios under various assumptions: from a continuation of current trends, through coordinated policy interventions, to varying rates of technology adoption. Scenario experiments will estimate systemic impacts on GDP, employment, inequality, energy costs and the structure of the energy mix, providing a politically relevant assessment of decarbonisation strategies.